If either of the last two races are wet, anything can happen, but if dry?
It's likely most of the pressure Lorenzo will feel could be in qualifying. He doesn't need pole but could do with the front row to get clear of any possible tangles. His starts are rarely poor so front row should see him safely into the first corner. He could lob it in qualifying trying to make sure of front row if one of the sateliite riders has 'one of those' qualifying sessions.
If he has a poor qualifying for whatever reason at PI, then a mid-pack start will make things interesting as he really needs a 3rd place finish to be comfortable going into the last race.
Assuming his start is ok, under normal circumstances, there will only be three riders out front, assuming Stoner is back to full speed, in which case Lorenzo only has to follow and come home an untroubled 3rd in each race to take the title. Its dfficult to see any other riders capable of getting within a few seconds of 3rd place based upon the rest of the season, let alone pushing him down to 4th. If Stoner still isn't up to speed then two 2nd places should come just as easily.
Is it fair to say that Lorenzo can only really put pressure on himself in the races by going for wins. If he wants to get the title with wins, then mistakes could happen. If he plays the points game and lets Pedrosa or Stoner go for the win, he can just cruise behind them and the title's his.
How much will the racer in him conflict with the safer option of points gathering. My guess is he'll get to the front if he can but won't get in too much of a scrap if challenged. Difficult to see him losing this one under normal circumstances.