To be honest, I'm stunned by how you youngsters simply do not grasp the meaning of percentages. I can go into a shite load of instances, but here's one. Let's take your model of 100 races, let's project that for the 5.30 at Ascot, Lucky Joe has a 90% chance of winning that race, the 2nd favourite, that's Pony Tail, may have a 70-72% chance, now why would he be down in the betting, could it be a new trainer, the jockey that previously rode him is not available, his last 3 wins were all on soft going, today's race however is good to firm, so his odds or percentages of winning or loosing, move with that.
Now then someone mentions 4/1 on, then shifts it to 4/1, you bet on single races, you can do the same thing in MotoGP, but no one rider is going to win every race, no one rider is going to finish second in every race, so when you quote a championship, you take an overview of that rider, and his past performance. Let's take Rossi for instance, and let's take that loser Smith. If you look at Smiths miserable Moto2 career, with nothing this year, he goes along with, by a lot of peoples beliefs, Rossi, because Rossi has done nowt for 2 years, 'what a looser, should have retired', so by your calculations, Smith goes into MotoGP with Rossi, with an equal chance, ie. both loosers, but, unless you're past hope, like Nostrils, no-one can surely believe that.
As I was bated into this 46 battle, I nailed my colours to the mast, as I did with Smith, and gave my opinion. So again MotoGP possible title winner, I rated Rossi with an 80% chance, if he goes into the break in the top 3 mid season. Obviously, with Lorenzo being No1, a proven package, Dani being much improved, the unknown factor is Marquez, so with the former two I gave them a slightly higher percentage being 85-90% from the word go, but we don't know how good Marquez is going to be. The only thing I can give you and stand by it, is there's a 0% chance for Smith of ever winning a race, and a very low 10/15% chance of him ever achieving a podium, and that's over the next two years, that's his percentage chance.
You rate the rider's ability, let's say Lorenzo of 100% would secure a title, that would be an outright champion winner in your opinion, rate Dani on his ability a 90% chance of winning the title, I give Rossi, based on his ability and having been off the pace for a couple of years, an 80% chance of winning the title, but I'd give, an off the wall guess, of Marquez a 30% chance of winning the title, if he proves to be fast, and a none crasher during the 2nd half of the season. Now if you lot, don't understand that, then I give up trying to educate pork.
So next time there's a 10% swing to labour, how many times are they going to have to swing that then, with the greens moving up 20%, it just doesn't work out your way. The percentage is based on everyone's individual performance in the race throughout the season, based on 100%, of your opinion.
Nostro for instance would only give Rossi a 5% chance or less of winning anything, but then that's what sniffing coke does for you.